The Changing European Environment : Political Trends and Prospects
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Original versionPrepared for a conference on "NATO Crisis Management in a Changing Europe" sponsored by the RAND Corporation and the RAND/UCLA Center for Soviet Studies, Hotel Palace, Brussels April 2-3, 1990.
The paper analyses prospective changes in the European political order. It looks back from four alternative scenarios of 1999: Europe of the Balance of Power; Europe of Two Alliances; Europe of Regions; Community Europe. Following that sketch of alternavtive long-term futures the paper explores the short term perspective in terms of eight major trends. The long term futures and the short term trends are linked by a suggested typology of potential contingencies which could strain the carrying capacity of the security order in Europe. Finally, the paper outlines a set of requirements for crisis management in the future Europe.