Lebanon poised at the brink
Working paper
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http://hdl.handle.net/11250/2413438Utgivelsesdato
2016Metadata
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Sammendrag
Gravely affected by the Syrian crisis, Lebanon has remained relatively
stable against all odds – despite the influx of some 1.5 million Syrian
refugees and an internal political crisis involving supporters of opposing
Syrian factions. Lebanon’s resilience can be explained by the high
opportunity cost of state breakdown for domestic, regional and international
political actors. Moreover, international economic assistance,
diaspora remittances and informal networks established by refugees
help to prevent outright economic breakdown. However, stability remains
extremely precarious. Primary tipping points include (1) an IS
strategy to spread the conflict to Lebanon, with consequent disintegration
of the army along sectarian lines, (2) democratic decline and people’s
dissatisfaction, (3) Hizbullah’s domestic ambitions and Israeli
fears over the group’s growing military powers and (4) the potential
that frustration between refugees and host communities may erupt into
recurrent violence. The slow economic and sanitary decline in the
country (5), however, is considered the biggest challenge.
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